Us Politics · resolved market
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6192d26bfa42ab263b804e5c86d06cd965a2475a8976eab18c6b05efba5aba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 0c | 10,978$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,699$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 17c | 5,575$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 20c | 5,197$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.8 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 17c | 5,074$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.75 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,934$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.57 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…ff77backed Yes | 5c | 2,905$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 8c | 2,613$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.09 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…edd5backed Yes | 1c | 2,448$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f05…8a73backed Yes | 1c | 2,125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 1,729$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…183cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,531$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,240$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…d9f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 11c | 1,199$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…74e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,107$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296c…9e76backed Yes | 1c | 1,103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,053$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…ce4cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,040$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 5c | 1,004$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…b297backed Yes | 2c | 908.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 852.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 9c | 847.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 754.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 740.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Yes | 17c | 665.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 557.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 20c | 500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 19c | 493.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 485.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 444.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83d…39d7backed No | 80c | 424.13$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b0…bbb6backed Yes | 7c | 377.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 357.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked Yes | 18c | 350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 344$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 330.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 315.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…b546backed Yes | 5c | 304.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 17c | 291.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 9c | 271.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b94…473ebacked Yes | 6c | 266.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes | 11c | 231.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…80cebacked Yes | 14c | 210.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 5c | 205.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…04ecbacked Yes | 7c | 179.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 22c | 174.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb24…ac2cbacked Yes | 8c | 173.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…4f52backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 132.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbe…b813backed Yes | 16c | 126.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…8e39backed Yes | 18c | 106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes | 19c | 103.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ba…2af0backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 79cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 91.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9402…424abacked Yes | 24c | 83.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Yes | 18c | 65.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…1067backed Yes | 17c | 63.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…0e58backed No | 79c | 61.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…ca45backed No | 70c | 28.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…ee0ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?this page
- Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 21, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 27, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 29, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.