Us Politics · resolved market
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8fc98425e63abac83e7e4b6eb27324caf52b1bef971705d6575649b716b85b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 2c | 3,522$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,258$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 1c | 1,659$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 1,340$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 1,201$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 1c | 1,165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3695…0c7cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 984.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…ce4cbacked Yes | 6c | 631.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 18c | 600$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…a200backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 337.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb24…ac2cbacked Yes | 18c | 273.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 29, 2026?this page
- Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 21, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 25, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 26, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 27, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 28, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?No won
- Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.