Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x925d235fa13839cd52ca6b44836f80dcd612d1155eb8450b79b35cdae9ec225a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed No | 0c | 10,024$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e30…e31dbacked No | 1c | 4,366$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c0…d9ffbacked No | 1c | 1,188$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 732.98$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.26 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 77c | 693.01$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…519fbacked Yes | 20c | 472.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 414.06$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 32c | 386.44$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.97 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9e…1217backed No | 74c | 344.06$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 18c | 326.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 313.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 33c | 273.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.71 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 33c | 254.03$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 236.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.4 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 8c | 214.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 34c | 205.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…fcd4backed Yes | 37c | 184.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 25c | 171.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 31c | 160.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 79c | 160$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…728bbacked Yes | 53c | 149.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 148.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 39c | 139.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 33c | 137.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 69c | 130.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 123.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 56c | 118.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 115.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 107.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…4625backed Yes | 26c | 104.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…4732backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 20c | 99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 31c | 88.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 45c | 88.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 32c | 58.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 50.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 38.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 37c | 27.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 72c | 25.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C or below on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or higher on January 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.