Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83547a6889327c52e7b9087ab27c319eaf739871f8afdeb4c7a721cd82a9b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5c3…dbf7backed Yes | 0c | 25,424$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,583$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 5c | 528.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 457.8$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.38 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 30c | 454.81$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.45 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 65c | 442.06$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 65c | 435.97$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.45 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 48c | 418.4$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.73 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 21c | 405.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 324.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.3 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…e353backed No | 28c | 288.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…871dbacked Yes | 69c | 240$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 68c | 236.12$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…f579backed Yes | 76c | 235.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…4732backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 8c | 199.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf717…6d1dbacked No | 33c | 156.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 47c | 145.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 16c | 142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f54ebacked Yes | 38c | 135.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe26…bd72backed Yes | 19c | 132$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 114.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d4…4020backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 34c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 47c | 85.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 39c | 81.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked No | 36c | 71.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…709ebacked Yes | 42c | 69.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked No | 29c | 63.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 57c | 63.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…fcd4backed Yes | 75c | 62.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 51c | 58.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 21c | 56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1e…c6a1backed Yes | 70c | 52.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 41c | 45.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d39fbacked Yes | 74c | 40.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…eaa5backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 27c | 39.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 78c | 38.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f7…b205backed Yes | 45c | 37.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 37.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 35.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…ab26backed Yes | 76c | 29.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4b…6b39backed Yes | 69c | 28.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 74c | 25.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 24.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked Yes | 51c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…4505backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1187…0c25backed Yes | 74c | 18.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 72c | 14.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 75c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C or below on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or higher on January 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.