AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd3c6ec1403a3681a9ccce6441b323b276178b22733deb49c39135bc37805119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa03…c9ffbacked No | 1c | 13,989$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 0c | 13,021$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eab…106bbacked No | 1c | 7,469$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…6db1backed No | 1c | 2,953$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 22c | 1,945$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.78 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…5d6dbacked No | 3c | 1,905$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0b…3607backed No | 1c | 1,284$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…0debbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 939.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 52c | 752.01$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.26 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d2…ba56backed No | 2c | 540.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 72c | 498.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…b4a1backed No | 75c | 345.61$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…269dbacked No | 8c | 328.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 63c | 301.6$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 287.04$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.67 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed No | 9c | 267.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…4acdbacked No | 73c | 249.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 223.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 202.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.86 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 77c | 175.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 139.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked No | 76c | 135.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…d8d3backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbc…c686backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 125.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…4660backed No | 78c | 121.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 29c | 103.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 100.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 90.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 19c | 80.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…2d15backed Yes | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +274.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 65c | 61.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 26c | 51.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cb…c08bbacked No | 74c | 51.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e1c0backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed No | 75c | 39.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…ba65backed No | 75c | 37.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…61c4backed No | 73c | 34.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 53c | 33.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…a7c5backed No | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 80c | 31.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…7b21backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc7…3976backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.