AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05699b16669292729d75819706f0ca1a9f51a07f8b85de1367f20db8d02c6076
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,801$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e54…4a99backed No | 0c | 2,740$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c072backed No | 0c | 2,503$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 55c | 1,881$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.29 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 1,230$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 24c | 1,062$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.67 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 43c | 809.83$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 63c | 808$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.42 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked No | 49c | 656.22$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 39c | 622.57$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.79 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 75c | 599.98$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 524.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 47c | 482.59$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.22 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 446.9$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…ebb5backed Yes | 53c | 443.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked No | 53c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +427.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 47c | 366.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d5…c20fbacked No | 53c | 345.48$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…3365backed No | 51c | 342.14$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cf…7148backed Yes | 46c | 340.58$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 25c | 273.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 57c | 239.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 52c | 233.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…34a1backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 45c | 221.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…4acdbacked Yes | 47c | 219.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 197.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 184.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…b4a1backed No | 52c | 181.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 174.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb306…0fb9backed No | 30c | 170$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 144.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1b…e318backed No | 50c | 124.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 72c | 120$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 58c | 109.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed No | 51c | 105.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90c…0d37backed No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…7b21backed No | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 59c | 77.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…663cbacked No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 69c | 65.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 63.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…2f41backed No | 60c | 58.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…61c4backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8906…7b41backed No | 61c | 47.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…e8dbbacked No | 64c | 46.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…fd5dbacked No | 43c | 46.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 56c | 44.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d88…1a05backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…7f93backed No | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…d47abacked Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…32c5backed No | 50c | 42.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…36bbbacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…7200backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…f15bbacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 44c | 37.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…0822backed Yes | 58c | 34.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…8249backed No | 54c | 33.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…85a1backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…1776backed No | 54c | 31.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 58c | 27.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…c76abacked No | 55c | 24.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 49c | 22.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…6947backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…8fb0backed No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.