Commodities · resolved market
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01f303f7cda610fec48d5164e8738ccde210af4f876f9511fa9fa6abe03be3e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6e8…955dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,600$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 54c | 3,778$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.73 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 51c | 2,071$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…cf60backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,845$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.18 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,575$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed No | 52c | 1,472$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 70c | 1,411$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.77 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 58c | 1,268$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 77c | 1,247$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.78 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…20fbbacked No | 66c | 1,243$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 1,220$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.23 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,024$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.38 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 44c | 943.77$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.61 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 57c | 884.94$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 72c | 780.32$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 702.09$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…243dbacked Yes | 55c | 632.77$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -87%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked Yes | 21c | 617.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 22c | 597.93$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 27c | 577.57$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 30c | 515.27$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 34c | 451.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.31 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 402.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.97 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed No | 75c | 392.79$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 25c | 356.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 20c | 313.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 34c | 309.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 249.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 42c | 240$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed Yes | 33c | 226.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +237.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…8a9abacked Yes | 45c | 221.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 47c | 210.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 5c | 209.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…42cdbacked Yes | 48c | 178.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 12c | 178.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…51a3backed Yes | 6c | 166.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…4d3abacked Yes | 34c | 152.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 21c | 149.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed Yes | 30c | 146$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…7e38backed Yes | 26c | 143.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9989…89bfbacked No | 72c | 139.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 44c | 139.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 135.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed Yes | 31c | 133.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed Yes | 52c | 131.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 38c | 130.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 39c | 130$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 67c | 114.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 28c | 114.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 29c | 102$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 101.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…68a2backed Yes | 34c | 99.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 40c | 99.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…4da6backed Yes | 41c | 98.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 22c | 95.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 21c | 93.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…e2e1backed No | 75c | 92.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…e656backed Yes | 24c | 90.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 34c | 88.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 77c | 86.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 17c | 86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 82.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Yes | 50c | 71.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 57c | 71.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 25c | 67.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 23c | 67.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed Yes | 26c | 63.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd92…3482backed No | 80c | 62.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 61.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 54c | 61.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 42c | 60.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5c52backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…6fddbacked No | 68c | 59.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 54c | 59.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 58.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 43c | 57.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 39c | 55.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 37c | 50.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…5a2ebacked Yes | 64c | 50.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…73c6backed Yes | 25c | 50.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 35c | 47.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…6f68backed Yes | 42c | 45.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 79c | 43.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 43.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 33c | 43.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 29c | 40.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 38c | 37.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…b942backed Yes | 34c | 35.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…3291backed No | 58c | 34.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 29c | 34.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc05b…c081backed No | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.