TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$838,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$802,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $838,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c5,344$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.1227322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes6c4,734$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.936434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+526.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes8c3,041$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3414031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8932…eb14backed Yes18c2,037$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.691216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes6c2,035$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.943839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58bd…8c37backed Yes7c1,761$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,730$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.982221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes5c1,533$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.966443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes11c1,526$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.494122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,416$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.191987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes10c1,408$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.234211.9%5 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes3c1,266$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2480%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes2c1,251$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.634030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c1,250$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2911.1%1 W · 90 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ab…a0efbacked No78c1,240$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc80b…b08ebacked Yes5c1,224$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a6…d913backed Yes8c1,211$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes11c1,119$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.697231.9%23 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161f…0f10backed Yes14c1,069$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88d…bb51backed Yes6c1,062$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c9…a86fbacked Yes8c1,040$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf167…2679backed Yes8c1,030$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…ee81backed Yes8c1,030$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44e0…470ebacked Yes14c1,029$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aa7…5430backed Yes6c1,028$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x818b…7c6bbacked Yes8c1,020$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf63…95febacked Yes8c1,020$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5684…2fe8backed Yes8c1,012$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f45…8740backed Yes7c995$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…54b0backed Yes7c972$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb51…800fbacked Yes8c970$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c7…3f94backed Yes8c970$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x586f…8f8abacked Yes6c966$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb6…7b55backed Yes6c966$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x822f…3ba0backed Yes6c956$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6da…63ecbacked Yes7c955$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b0…f613backed Yes6c955$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1f…cd31backed Yes7c949$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea8e…0875backed Yes7c937$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b58…1af2backed Yes7c935$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cdd…c92ebacked Yes9c929.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f32…e01dbacked Yes6c918$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa344…7395backed Yes6c918$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c44…0919backed Yes8c910$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f4b…7ed1backed Yes9c909.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x544b…83a1backed Yes7c907$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0282…46e9backed Yes7c907$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76bb…6997backed Yes6c900$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2436…baefbacked Yes6c900$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa18c…5019backed Yes9c898$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7bc…c3dfbacked Yes8c888$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d88…feb1backed Yes9c867$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f29…738ebacked Yes16c860$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.12560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88da…630abacked Yes8c858$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes3c825.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9111032.7%36 W · 74 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x023b…cc90backed Yes8c805$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No76c779.23$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.234077.5%31 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x304e…a4cfbacked Yes17c744$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d6…1f1ebacked Yes8c739$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3733…f0e7backed Yes9c720$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27fc…c4f8backed Yes4c712$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e7…12bfbacked Yes7c682$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f47…08f6backed Yes11c671$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x400d…fb0abacked Yes6c657$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc133…4a28backed Yes6c657$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e9…8cc6backed Yes5c654$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20c3…c5f1backed Yes6c644$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70bc…2041backed Yes6c621$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes23c614.14$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.38214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce22…aa4abacked Yes21c614$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x927f…5069backed Yes12c605$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2150%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3802…8e1dbacked Yes4c602$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x605c…9a44backed Yes8c601$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeeb…1edebacked Yes25c601$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf952…923bbacked Yes16c590$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x498a…d5b0backed Yes7c590$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf801…6359backed Yes6c587$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4377…05f4backed Yes11c577$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9171…a29cbacked Yes6c573$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5467…851dbacked Yes9c570$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x990f…a69cbacked Yes15c568$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2436…e2d7backed Yes8c563$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes6c557.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.244723.4%11 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes8c517.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.017835.9%28 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd4…5026backed Yes12c517$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dad…542fbacked Yes6c502$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa913…048fbacked Yes7c495$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3f…d4eebacked Yes4c478$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes10c472.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-54.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3025…3df3backed Yes5c472$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3739…1ee9backed Yes6c471$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ee…4a21backed Yes11c467$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+107.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9600…9f0abacked Yes19c465$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1438…97bdbacked Yes11c459$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.56425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c1…3c5cbacked Yes6c459$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc160…5a82backed Yes6c457$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x990b…0f0cbacked Yes13c455$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x671e…6c07backed Yes6c452$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf4…b696backed Yes21c451$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8358…a0dabacked Yes9c440$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.