Commodities · resolved market
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cfe39eb9390a84ddefd9a2cb06014aaed214c23588fca468e0d5983740dc661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $838,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $802,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $838,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,344$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.12 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 6c | 4,734$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.93 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 3,041$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.34 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 18c | 2,037$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 6c | 2,035$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bd…8c37backed Yes | 7c | 1,761$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,730$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 5c | 1,533$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 1,526$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,416$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 1,408$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 3c | 1,266$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 2c | 1,251$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked No | 78c | 1,240$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…b08ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,224$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…d913backed Yes | 8c | 1,211$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 11c | 1,119$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…0f10backed Yes | 14c | 1,069$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88d…bb51backed Yes | 6c | 1,062$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c9…a86fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,040$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…2679backed Yes | 8c | 1,030$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…ee81backed Yes | 8c | 1,030$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e0…470ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,029$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…5430backed Yes | 6c | 1,028$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…7c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,020$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf63…95febacked Yes | 8c | 1,020$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…2fe8backed Yes | 8c | 1,012$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…8740backed Yes | 7c | 995$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…54b0backed Yes | 7c | 972$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…800fbacked Yes | 8c | 970$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c7…3f94backed Yes | 8c | 970$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…8f8abacked Yes | 6c | 966$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb6…7b55backed Yes | 6c | 966$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…3ba0backed Yes | 6c | 956$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6da…63ecbacked Yes | 7c | 955$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…f613backed Yes | 6c | 955$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…cd31backed Yes | 7c | 949$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…0875backed Yes | 7c | 937$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b58…1af2backed Yes | 7c | 935$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…c92ebacked Yes | 9c | 929.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 918$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…7395backed Yes | 6c | 918$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…0919backed Yes | 8c | 910$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…7ed1backed Yes | 9c | 909.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544b…83a1backed Yes | 7c | 907$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…46e9backed Yes | 7c | 907$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…6997backed Yes | 6c | 900$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…baefbacked Yes | 6c | 900$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…5019backed Yes | 9c | 898$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…c3dfbacked Yes | 8c | 888$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…feb1backed Yes | 9c | 867$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f29…738ebacked Yes | 16c | 860$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88da…630abacked Yes | 8c | 858$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 3c | 825.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x023b…cc90backed Yes | 8c | 805$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 779.23$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.23 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…a4cfbacked Yes | 17c | 744$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…1f1ebacked Yes | 8c | 739$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…f0e7backed Yes | 9c | 720$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fc…c4f8backed Yes | 4c | 712$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…12bfbacked Yes | 7c | 682$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f47…08f6backed Yes | 11c | 671$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…fb0abacked Yes | 6c | 657$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc133…4a28backed Yes | 6c | 657$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…8cc6backed Yes | 5c | 654$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c3…c5f1backed Yes | 6c | 644$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…2041backed Yes | 6c | 621$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 23c | 614.14$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…aa4abacked Yes | 21c | 614$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…5069backed Yes | 12c | 605$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…8e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 602$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…9a44backed Yes | 8c | 601$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeeb…1edebacked Yes | 25c | 601$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…923bbacked Yes | 16c | 590$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x498a…d5b0backed Yes | 7c | 590$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…6359backed Yes | 6c | 587$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4377…05f4backed Yes | 11c | 577$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…a29cbacked Yes | 6c | 573$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…851dbacked Yes | 9c | 570$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…a69cbacked Yes | 15c | 568$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2436…e2d7backed Yes | 8c | 563$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 557.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 8c | 517.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd4…5026backed Yes | 12c | 517$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…542fbacked Yes | 6c | 502$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa913…048fbacked Yes | 7c | 495$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…d4eebacked Yes | 4c | 478$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 10c | 472.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3025…3df3backed Yes | 5c | 472$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…1ee9backed Yes | 6c | 471$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ee…4a21backed Yes | 11c | 467$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9600…9f0abacked Yes | 19c | 465$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…97bdbacked Yes | 11c | 459$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…3c5cbacked Yes | 6c | 459$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…5a82backed Yes | 6c | 457$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…0f0cbacked Yes | 13c | 455$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…6c07backed Yes | 6c | 452$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf4…b696backed Yes | 21c | 451$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…a0dabacked Yes | 9c | 440$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.