Commodities · resolved market
Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8f805271f03acff0ce530f952649806e591d0e6cb073bf306c546fd8b54e12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 2 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 51.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 72c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.