Commodities · resolved market
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e52e2c40b4365375f6c1d7eddccb3880f17d399b7e6f3ee8c865b9b5122a09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 11c | 1,604$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 1,202$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +383.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 4c | 999.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 884.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 12c | 626.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 616.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 565.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 525.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 494.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 3c | 401.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 8c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…f5cfbacked Yes | 5c | 290.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…574cbacked Yes | 18c | 279.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 173.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 74.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 71.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 21c | 62.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.