Commodities · resolved market
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba13d2eec9eceed57bd08d8157bd01fff8a54bef61baa6d9303fb2c3cd75c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,052$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.17 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…9a6abacked Yes | 8c | 1,004$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…5bfebacked Yes | 8c | 1,004$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…f69dbacked Yes | 8c | 994$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…9e4abacked Yes | 8c | 993.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…fd64backed Yes | 8c | 983$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…296bbacked Yes | 8c | 983$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 6c | 712.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…3c44backed Yes | 5c | 673$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed6…6967backed Yes | 5c | 669$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…cdabbacked Yes | 5c | 669$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5883…f985backed Yes | 6c | 663$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2143…8f08backed Yes | 7c | 625$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f1…2709backed Yes | 7c | 625$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 23c | 586.81$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 515.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 5c | 451.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 21c | 233.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 6c | 184.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 6c | 180.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 19c | 160.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked Yes | 15c | 136.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 16c | 68.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 51.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 67c | 35.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeced…c598backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.