TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,836 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c3…110fbacked Yes5c995$50 inLost-$49.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56c7…3f94backed Yes6c990$54 inLost-$54.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b5…e5e2backed Yes7c963$65 inLost-$64.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302b…190cbacked Yes7c950$64 inLost-$63.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6c…4f36backed Yes7c950$63 inLost-$62.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4142…ed76backed Yes7c934.99$62 inLost-$61.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15a7…03c8backed Yes4c920$37 inLost-$36.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9924…363fbacked Yes4c920$37 inLost-$36.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a52…b285backed Yes7c847$62 inLost-$62.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68af…8409backed Yes4c730$29 inLost-$29.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x058e…de3fbacked Yes3c725$20 inLost-$20.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d4…1d88backed Yes7c690$46 inLost-$46.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3762…ede9backed Yes7c690$49 inLost-$48.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6073…0a3cbacked Yes7c687$49 inLost-$48.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf167…2679backed Yes4c510$20 inLost-$20.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…ee81backed Yes4c509.99$20 inLost-$20.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes3c437.22$14 inLost-$14.474723.4%11 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes4c422.68$16 inLost-$15.562221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes4c300$12 inLost-$11.74122%9 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes5c251.54$13 inLost-$12.89633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-28.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes9c200$18 inLost-$183020%6 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-54.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed Yes9c150$14 inLost-$13.52665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.3wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51de…9e4abacked Yes22c138.08$30 inLost-$301533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes30c56.97$17 inLost-$1730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No71c17.6$13 inWon+$5.057835.9%28 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.