Commodities · resolved market
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x272c0b076215acae2df649271ba3e2873043c2320e40fc38b1a29fba38edb478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 8c | 3,028$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.07 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913d…a505backed Yes | 7c | 2,119$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,091$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.12 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…7779backed Yes | 8c | 1,562$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…0a54backed Yes | 8c | 1,546$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…7655backed Yes | 8c | 1,520$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…f204backed Yes | 8c | 1,518$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e15…b808backed Yes | 8c | 1,510$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…e0bfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,410$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,403$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…a541backed Yes | 8c | 1,382$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…9ddfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,368$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed Yes | 16c | 1,241$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.52 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 23c | 1,205$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5185…932fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,147$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…b17fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,090$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f3…00efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,080$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…b740backed Yes | 8c | 1,077$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,074$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…325bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,073$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6582…a10abacked Yes | 8c | 1,030$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…de39backed Yes | 8c | 1,030$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 1,009$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.47 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…a6e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,005$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 19c | 999.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.88 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked No | 79c | 997.02$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.89 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 6c | 991.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…95fbbacked Yes | 8c | 985.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…48d0backed Yes | 8c | 980$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eec…7111backed Yes | 8c | 968.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba98…112dbacked Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 779.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 25c | 742.2$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 732.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588a…83d6backed No | 76c | 700$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 22c | 694.74$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 632.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…4e23backed Yes | 8c | 605$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 12c | 595.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f9…5859backed Yes | 8c | 575$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3c…316cbacked Yes | 8c | 570$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…aa0abacked Yes | 8c | 569$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5f…151fbacked Yes | 9c | 564$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd8…218bbacked Yes | 8c | 563$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 551.71$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…2479backed Yes | 8c | 543$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…d035backed Yes | 8c | 530$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c62…2ff7backed Yes | 9c | 488$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed Yes | 9c | 479.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 458.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 17c | 403.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 9c | 399.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 27c | 352$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 346.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked Yes | 10c | 329.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 267.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 9c | 265.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 25c | 264.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 13c | 250.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 7c | 236.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…243dbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -87%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 23c | 215.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 19c | 215$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 26c | 213.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +196.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…eae5backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 15c | 190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Yes | 25c | 181.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 16c | 175.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…3322backed Yes | 7c | 174.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 10c | 162.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 147.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 21c | 138.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b22…74ecbacked Yes | 22c | 136.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 77c | 124.8$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 73c | 118.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…7311backed Yes | 15c | 101.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 23c | 97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…11febacked No | 76c | 96.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…3d3bbacked Yes | 11c | 92.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…4da6backed Yes | 22c | 90.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…775fbacked Yes | 25c | 90.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 12c | 90.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed No | 80c | 90.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 23c | 81.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…5561backed Yes | 19c | 75.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 16c | 74.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed No | 78c | 73.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 25c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…47b6backed Yes | 32c | 58.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f3ccbacked No | 77c | 56.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +5.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…b692backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 51.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…6c73backed Yes | 40c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.