Fifa International · resolved market
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x207a044bf72ef3fb424f767561ccd7fd0af1cc2cf44bc02167aeac88497229f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fd2…48e6backed Yes | 53c | 4,717$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 47c | 2,016$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.94 | 252 | 44.8%113 W · 139 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed Yes | 52c | 1,437$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.35 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 396.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 318.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.24 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 173 | 40.5%70 W · 103 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…c45ebacked Yes | 71c | 295.14$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 244.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 23c | 243.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 45c | 228.76$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 33c | 183.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 43c | 182.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 57c | 182.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -64%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 168.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…54dcbacked Yes | 64c | 126$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed Yes | 49c | 104$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 43c | 89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed Yes | 58c | 78.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 46c | 68.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 59c | 51.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 53c | 42.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked No | 39c | 40.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…2453backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 61.5%64 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 30.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…b327backed No | 42c | 28.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 28.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 44c | 26.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 166 | 46.4%77 W · 89 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…2995backed No | 43c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?this page
- Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
- Will Spain finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.