Ukraine · resolved market
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2232160c7b9a9607a506b46872f1f3501a3dccdf8384c7572a1617956a86797a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42fa…1fc7backed No | 56c | 11,554$6,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,465.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe963…1856backed No | 0c | 10,061$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…be6cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,511$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,485.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +13,943.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 26c | 3,021$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,243.71 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 6c | 1,690$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 49c | 1,574$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.92 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…2febbacked No | 79c | 1,261$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 16c | 1,051$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 19c | 1,027$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.57 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 73c | 787.03$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 3c | 700.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.05 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…8be2backed No | 69c | 668.66$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 30c | 639.31$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 37c | 621.93$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 10c | 571.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 563.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.44 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 395.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.66 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…2d5ebacked No | 66c | 372.81$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 12c | 359.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 15c | 330.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.23 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…b71abacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 16c | 295$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 16c | 292$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f9…9b39backed No | 76c | 272.37$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed No | 69c | 257.82$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…a798backed No | 66c | 249.89$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…77b2backed No | 64c | 238.04$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 66c | 222.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 25c | 213.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 205.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.42 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked No | 66c | 184.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 27c | 162.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 69c | 160.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 57c | 145.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3acd…5cd0backed No | 77c | 141.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 123.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes | 36c | 121.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 17c | 120.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…ed9fbacked No | 71c | 116.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 67c | 114.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bb…41fbbacked No | 62c | 99.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes | 43c | 94.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 37c | 91.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 53c | 89.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…3dc1backed Yes | 36c | 82.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…9865backed No | 65c | 77.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b2…1721backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…64e3backed No | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…2f64backed Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…8905backed Yes | 45c | 51.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 60c | 50.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…82c8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 35c | 43.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f03…d3eebacked Yes | 34c | 39.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…80aabacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613e…466cbacked Yes | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 31.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 67c | 26.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd7…17e5backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…5208backed No | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c4…1378backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.