Us Politics · resolved market
Major US official out by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c38fa49349167e5fadb5d2583da2132b4e52aab654babd0dd67e5d917fe12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 78c | 3,115$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.22 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 55c | 3,089$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.22 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 15c | 1,830$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 2c | 1,774$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 47c | 1,460$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.3 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 35c | 1,384$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…d654backed Yes | 60c | 1,300$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 21c | 1,280$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 37c | 1,233$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.13 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 40c | 1,073$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.06 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,015$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…7eadbacked No | 2c | 1,006$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 34c | 932.16$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 32c | 874.5$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed No | 40c | 811.59$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 35c | 659.82$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 36c | 540$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.4 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 46c | 356.57$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 13c | 340.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.17 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 13c | 275.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.69 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 38c | 274.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 66c | 256.19$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 62c | 223$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 15c | 204.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef31…8269backed Yes | 21c | 183.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +379.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked Yes | 28c | 176.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +101%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 29c | 156.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 33c | 155.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 10c | 150.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 39c | 129.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 18c | 124.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba54…699dbacked No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…cebbbacked Yes | 16c | 107.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d7…e632backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…abc7backed No | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…f194backed No | 64c | 79.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed No | 39c | 79.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed No | 78c | 76.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 75.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 74.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 51c | 73.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…c680backed Yes | 45c | 70.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 16c | 68.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…ba5abacked Yes | 47c | 55.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 51c | 52.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 44.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed No | 46c | 42.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 51c | 42.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…f8e3backed No | 44c | 40.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…c007backed No | 48c | 40.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218a…9f99backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…3a02backed Yes | 40c | 37.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60d…19a9backed No | 55c | 36.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…a123backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…1f39backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 57c | 34.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 74c | 30.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x674c…e4f3backed Yes | 66c | 30.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 58c | 29.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1e…f51cbacked No | 42c | 26.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 55c | 23.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…cbe4backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 71c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…580dbacked Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe925…7c4fbacked No | 56c | 20.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…be57backed No | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.