World Politics · resolved market
US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad70137ba0d0f8dd2a836c0e66cfdbe493e8d9f353c296d73bccce99c8039a50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 49c | 7,466$3,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,658.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x190a…6ae2backed No | 27c | 3,787$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 76c | 3,505$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…82d9backed Yes | 40c | 2,789$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…7961backed No | 26c | 2,787$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…3b58backed Yes | 73c | 2,505$1,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…74cbbacked No | 64c | 1,795$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,548$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.44 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…69c2backed Yes | 74c | 1,396$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Yes | 74c | 1,365$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…1ffebacked Yes | 73c | 1,308$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 51c | 1,081$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 53c | 944.78$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.78 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 38c | 813.29$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 50c | 800.47$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.43 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 73c | 800$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 37c | 764.99$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.24 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 50c | 756.6$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.14 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed Yes | 53c | 656.11$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed No | 49c | 600$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 589.06$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.62 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 58c | 580.01$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.65 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 45c | 533.94$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.56 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 43c | 425.52$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.74 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…2c6dbacked Yes | 73c | 408.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 60c | 342.73$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 52c | 250.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 25c | 247.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 52c | 216.93$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6b…eac6backed No | 54c | 212$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 210$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 46c | 201.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…bc97backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…9589backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9745…c39cbacked No | 55c | 179.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…31cebacked No | 46c | 161.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 143.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 59c | 133.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 52c | 114.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 104.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…e2a2backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…0978backed Yes | 42c | 98.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…137cbacked No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…66a2backed No | 52c | 92.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 35c | 86.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 85.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 77.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Yes | 76c | 75.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…39adbacked Yes | 68c | 74.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b0…5897backed No | 57c | 62.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 73c | 55.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…d404backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…7018backed No | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…d56ebacked Yes | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked Yes | 55c | 48.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 51c | 45.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed Yes | 54c | 42.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…a11dbacked Yes | 68c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 50c | 41.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…89d4backed Yes | 58c | 38.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…5ee6backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…4c5dbacked No | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…1474backed Yes | 59c | 31.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…eab1backed Yes | 70c | 31.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…e64ebacked No | 69c | 30.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 48c | 28.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…7186backed No | 43c | 28.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…7371backed No | 44c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 59c | 27.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 54c | 25.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 56c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +348.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…8489backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…5e67backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…b6eebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…406bbacked Yes | 60c | 17.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…0dfbbacked Yes | 74c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 28?this page
- US shelter-in-place order lifted in Jalisco by February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.