TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Epstein suicide note released by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$531,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$493,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $531,693 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 257 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes19c19,000$3,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,569.225042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes12c16,318$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.0812630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes14c14,000$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.811816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43d…8a2abacked Yes17c9,165$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes0c7,727$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.731957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e64…fc32backed Yes13c7,662$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked Yes4c7,200$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+302.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes15c5,500$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.713138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes0c5,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes2c5,450$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec2…b015backed Yes6c5,316$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.17119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes26c4,898$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes11c4,887$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.8618425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0c…fbd7backed Yes0c4,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…8c4fbacked Yes60c4,448$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,66630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes12c4,259$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes16c4,055$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.882213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes24c3,776$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes0c3,742$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe75…c2b1backed Yes6c3,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b6d…5453backed Yes14c3,457$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed Yes13c3,344$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.55137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-89.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5666…c630backed Yes25c3,295$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes12c3,274$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.457051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes18c3,129$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.312123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ba…2325backed Yes13c3,086$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes11c3,080$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3444226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-49.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes12c3,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702825%7 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef2…b9ccbacked Yes3c2,907$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed No76c2,754$2,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes23c2,456$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.74346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Yes13c2,400$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe661…b679backed Yes14c2,398$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes18c2,373$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes14c2,326$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c72…1243backed Yes12c2,281$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c2,127$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.441428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes21c2,057$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.33650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes17c2,006$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20a…d92dbacked No78c2,004$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.582100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+208.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7511…a568backed Yes14c1,845$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…ea5dbacked No29c1,837$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+55.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes22c1,835$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.536230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No80c1,822$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.392657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes13c1,686$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No42c1,598$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.812250%11 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+33.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes8c1,552$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.78414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes9c1,551$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0cd…0aa9backed No79c1,520$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8852718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Yes28c1,375$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.934226.2%11 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes27c1,375$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c1,372$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.3255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…03a1backed Yes23c1,349$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes14c1,326$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.62520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes6c1,304$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes16c1,300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c1,276$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.12765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes6c1,260$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7318725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No73c1,249$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.82638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes16c1,246$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes17c1,240$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.391010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-87.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes7c1,199$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.08210%0 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes17c1,191$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes29c1,108$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.184242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6a…e86dbacked Yes11c1,064$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes8c1,054$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.791833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+113.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes20c1,048$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.962825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes19c1,042$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.21662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes28c1,014$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.82334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes7c1,008$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.61787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12014125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc954…6609backed Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+415.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes10c999.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes21c996.48$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.492025%5 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes10c900$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes27c876.28$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.424957.1%28 W · 21 L+8.3wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+47.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No68c873.84$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.4219638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…8387backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes13c811.32$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98af…dd79backed Yes30c800.63$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a70…18f0backed No77c799.99$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba7…4782backed Yes9c785.67$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a54…4a03backed Yes15c712.6$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…7965backed Yes11c709.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes8c709.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+45.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes13c707.16$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3315124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5df…32aabacked Yes15c695.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes7c694.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6315032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes36c694.08$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.87875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+38.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes26c650$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eda…92a7backed Yes10c627$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes14c624.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1150%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No76c617.79$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.67757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+26.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes15c599.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8815227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes7c596.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.191942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c594.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.65728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.