AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab72ca7d1abe9c4d7e4682ebaa355668269a06ec1dcaa40cc3579a0ab5830ce4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,109$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 47c | 907.3$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.55 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 52c | 450$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 45c | 142.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fc…42d2backed Yes | 60c | 133.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Yes | 44c | 125.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +206.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 30c | 125$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 63c | 101.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…ad75backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…ea60backed No | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.