AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf157ed75521b8565fceb9a3760a8aad21fddd207c29fedbb934660ead5bdec1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 65c | 1,070$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.06 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 617$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 474.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 46c | 449.98$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.99 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…8f37backed Yes | 48c | 412.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 76c | 391.5$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 26c | 298$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6c…d781backed Yes | 52c | 229.19$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 28c | 184.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 93.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 88.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…6874backed Yes | 37c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed No | 46c | 54.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 71c | 47.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…b100backed No | 56c | 44.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 42.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 41c | 26.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 72c | 24.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…f68ebacked Yes | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.