Tennis · resolved market
Flavio Cobolli vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9836cb4f42194cfd6264e453e3a02c4bee9eb1a2f915e744961227a6f3697a8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c04…8c0abacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 1,414$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…ee5fbacked Under 2.5 | 37c | 1,288$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.56 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 1,057$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.77 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over 2.5 | 53c | 615.58$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.62 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647a…4d7abacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 488$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 55c | 446.06$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.35 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 388.24$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…7d86backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 367.6$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.26 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 360.03$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 319.2$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…a95bbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 312.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.11 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 230.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.25 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e4…b726backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 228.31$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Over 2.5 | 39c | 225.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 198.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under 2.5 | 40c | 193.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 191.89$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Over 2.5 | 18c | 174.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Over 2.5 | 61c | 163.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…a25dbacked Over 2.5 | 48c | 145.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 140.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…1ee1backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 137.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 133.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 117.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 117.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Over 2.5 | 24c | 107$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 96.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 81.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Over 2.5 | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over 2.5 | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Over 2.5 | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…0952backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 63.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 58.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 55.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 46.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305b…cd21backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 550 | 59.1%325 W · 225 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked Over 2.5 | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over 2.5 | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…8416backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…15efbacked Over 2.5 | 57c | 29.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flavio Cobolli vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ben SheltonBen Shelton won
- Cobolli vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Shelton: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs SheltonShelton won
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5)Shelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.