Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2246b9981e9f6352237c2d5b1d76b7f4e6d0d3c42854b9c13bfc7e099a2a769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 13c | 7,351$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.54 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 21c | 4,242$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.31 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 13c | 1,144$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 1,043$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 30c | 1,020$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.46 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 922.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 80c | 870$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 16c | 820.73$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed No | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 78c | 749.81$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 492.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.8 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 76c | 461.51$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 19c | 423.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.45 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 16c | 345$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 14c | 301.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.29 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 269$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 18c | 262.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…f625backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91c9…d319backed No | 57c | 160.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 30c | 145.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 31c | 119.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed Yes | 61c | 111.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 76c | 92.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 85.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 79c | 74.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 72c | 71.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 25c | 55.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…e801backed Yes | 45c | 42.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…b31cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…757dbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?this page
- Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?Yes won
- Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.