Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c35c995ea86b3f6344a6a0c5dacc033185ef52662a5fce9e16367c151b1e01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7678…22a3backed No | 48c | 2,556$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 31c | 1,790$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.56 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 61c | 1,768$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.78 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 72c | 1,671$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.58 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 38c | 1,200$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 7c | 1,168$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 75c | 804.49$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.49 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 700.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 28c | 479$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.43 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 16c | 434.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 38c | 333.86$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.03 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 331$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 27c | 285.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 228.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 74c | 192.26$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Yes | 66c | 118.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 79c | 75.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed No | 62c | 69.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 53c | 59.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 58c | 55.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…3ef7backed Yes | 63c | 55.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 43c | 48.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 48.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed Yes | 70c | 44.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 38c | 44.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…99a5backed No | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked Yes | 73c | 40.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…490dbacked Yes | 66c | 37.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…5d02backed No | 48c | 34.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 65c | 17.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…a91ebacked Yes | 67c | 15.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 79c | 15.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?this page
- Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.