Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aac605d2462dbcd7465e169d2cd64ff43f287c594ba5fbfddaed7521c988dc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 80c | 1,056$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.87 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 35c | 111$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 84.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 23c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 55c | 50.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 72c | 45.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…976abacked No | 28c | 45.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 30c | 45.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…3ef7backed Yes | 43c | 42.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…fff2backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 25.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc031…2c43backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9c…9236backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 56c | 19.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 61c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?this page
- Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.