Weather · resolved market
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf410fc9d37983494010f4102e57b5ec5e0f02712692e6ed749dba71e55f6333c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf57a…72a5backed No | 8c | 9,910$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fd…1250backed No | 2c | 1,318$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 55c | 961.95$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 44c | 851.3$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e9…7dc2backed No | 10c | 645.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed No | 5c | 636.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 419.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 62c | 376.64$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +306.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 345.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 63c | 339.81$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 28c | 310.2$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 28c | 247.15$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 8c | 244.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 72c | 231.09$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 11c | 195$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…3134backed Yes | 44c | 126.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…b6aabacked No | 48c | 123.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed No | 54c | 89.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…7e03backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 70c | 66.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked No | 28c | 63.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…f801backed No | 59c | 59.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed Yes | 51c | 58.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 63c | 50.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…10c0backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…dc73backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…e9f3backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bf…07e5backed Yes | 68c | 43.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 56c | 41.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…2947backed No | 55c | 37.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 28.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…b942backed No | 70c | 27.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 51c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.