Commodities · resolved market
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3941412b11ae9b812dec52db55e99b1465a7f4a3b95e364d58ce7c943bf95018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 62,868$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.78 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 15c | 19,977$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 66c | 10,345$6,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,484.81 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 43c | 6,200$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,506.9 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 32c | 5,258$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 75c | 4,972$3,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.62 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes | 5c | 3,590$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,415.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb50…257dbacked Yes | 75c | 3,251$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed No | 60c | 2,744$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked No | 10c | 2,453$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 69c | 2,255$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 2c | 1,339$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 39c | 1,219$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.46 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 22c | 1,208$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.75 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 1,166$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.66 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 70c | 1,166$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…1c9cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,146$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 16c | 1,034$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.2 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 5c | 1,033$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.98 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 37c | 979.06$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.47 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 60c | 977.64$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.5 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7484…cd2bbacked Yes | 13c | 852.68$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +685.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 747.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.99 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 79c | 713.56$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.53 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3276…dd01backed Yes | 25c | 703.32$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 14c | 694$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 48c | 671.46$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed No | 51c | 600$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 59c | 583.81$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 565$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.07 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 13c | 537.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 29c | 517$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…18dfbacked No | 56c | 501.85$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 14c | 480.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.54 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 75c | 472.87$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.95 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 6c | 468.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.49 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 441.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.96 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 8c | 438.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +152%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0e…434ebacked No | 79c | 422.65$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2236…6e0cbacked Yes | 38c | 371.31$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 39c | 369.22$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed Yes | 47c | 351.46$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 42c | 322.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.57 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 14c | 311.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.47 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0a…3a9dbacked No | 9c | 299$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 61c | 289.53$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…c8d2backed No | 70c | 286.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 69c | 267.76$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.52 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 30c | 255.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.9 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0500backed Yes | 14c | 241.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +611.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 230.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked No | 45c | 224.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 48c | 195.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked No | 54c | 191.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…ac16backed No | 28c | 179.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…8c0cbacked No | 62c | 178.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 21c | 164.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 45c | 163.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…c765backed Yes | 68c | 147.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 68c | 145.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed No | 9c | 145$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 10c | 142$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…303abacked Yes | 12c | 132.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +717%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed No | 64c | 132.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…c170backed Yes | 37c | 130.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 52c | 122.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc265…50a0backed Yes | 14c | 122.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 122.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.84 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 75c | 115.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 38c | 108.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…8fddbacked No | 79c | 107.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 27c | 102.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 102$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4401…aea5backed Yes | 24c | 100.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb00…2c0fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +180.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 41c | 97.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…f6febacked No | 75c | 95.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 72c | 94.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 62c | 90.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 12c | 87.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…1fcabacked Yes | 31c | 85.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…92f1backed Yes | 60c | 82.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7abb…5465backed No | 76c | 80.64$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 55c | 80.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…f696backed Yes | 44c | 77.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 65c | 72.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 25c | 69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +156.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 69c | 66.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 65c | 64.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f1…325ebacked Yes | 42c | 61.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x688b…49f5backed Yes | 22c | 61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa945…110fbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Yes | 52c | 57.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +267%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?this page
- Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 60-69 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.