Commodities · resolved market
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2dd088aaa418764365a9b7bc592843976708a48e4001f7ceec9ce8021b65430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,700$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.03 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 16c | 696.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 79c | 588.02$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 15c | 540.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 24c | 424.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 9c | 369.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed No | 77c | 368$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 365.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…1f6abacked Yes | 27c | 310$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed Yes | 29c | 234.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1f…bb86backed Yes | 28c | 175.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…870cbacked Yes | 32c | 134.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 25c | 120.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 110.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 19c | 102.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 90.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 76c | 88.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…dcd6backed No | 78c | 82.46$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 75c | 77.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 17c | 76.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 18c | 61.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 24c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 57.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 21c | 50.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…06a2backed Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…f893backed Yes | 35c | 43.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9922…1a6fbacked Yes | 26c | 41.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 79c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 21.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…c270backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?this page
- Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 60-69 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Yes won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.