Commodities · resolved market
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3c07d09683fd47732a09b2b62a67eff071e3372fb5ce9edc1109a6ef58e121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 13c | 787.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 43c | 746.31$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.88 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked No | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 19c | 400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…1f6abacked Yes | 13c | 290$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f220backed Yes | 16c | 218.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b53…956dbacked Yes | 29c | 172.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 8c | 160.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 34c | 146.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 72c | 137.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 77c | 133.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 120.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 112.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…870cbacked Yes | 19c | 104.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 75c | 96.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 95.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 91.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 39c | 82.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840d…4928backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…8490backed Yes | 17c | 69.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 64c | 58.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 63c | 52.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222f…8271backed No | 79c | 45.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19be…c270backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…f9f3backed Yes | 39c | 33.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 77c | 32.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…eaf8backed Yes | 48c | 31.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 40c | 29.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 26.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdb…83d6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…3362backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?this page
- Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 60-69 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 70-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Yes won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.