Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec31fd00bcf5f321ce2b569a12f9af554402ed6f70be46de83f5674e97fbf98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x960f…c1aabacked No | 1c | 1,923$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,199$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2143…8f08backed No | 6c | 983$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…1673backed No | 6c | 983$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…9a0ebacked No | 6c | 978$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6514…49fbbacked No | 6c | 978$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked No | 1c | 968.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…efc9backed No | 6c | 936$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf043…bef5backed No | 6c | 936$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 34c | 561.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.58 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 78c | 460.03$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 58c | 402.71$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 20c | 340.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.87 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 69c | 292.7$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.07 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…dd88backed Yes | 34c | 292.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 31c | 231.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.86 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 20c | 163.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…9d60backed No | 30c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 132.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 121.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 73c | 116.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 115.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.79 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 28c | 110.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…ff7bbacked Yes | 31c | 109.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed Yes | 29c | 108.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +348.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked No | 49c | 82.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 75.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd82…8f2abacked No | 75c | 57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 67c | 52.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 28c | 44.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 28c | 43.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 57c | 19.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Matiasheve by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.