Olympics · resolved market
Will Miho Takagi (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b0de2a8cb2f29bf9504a0cfc195b906b030f1f3aad63acaaeb0bc86905ed2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 43c | 927.54$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.53 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 32c | 865.22$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.63 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7436…0ac4backed No | 58c | 683.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…17c3backed No | 7c | 600.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.34 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed Yes | 3c | 566.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 44c | 525.26$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 41c | 420.25$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…3805backed Yes | 48c | 318.7$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed Yes | 71c | 281.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 58c | 187$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 15c | 168.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 58c | 164.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 74c | 156.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 48c | 145.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed Yes | 60c | 137.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…4e66backed Yes | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 43c | 134.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 47c | 117$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 64c | 115.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 50c | 109$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 28c | 103.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6325…cfaabacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b26…a280backed Yes | 52c | 97.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 45c | 84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 71.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…3b56backed Yes | 74c | 67.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed No | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed No | 36c | 55.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…20c5backed Yes | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…a2b6backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbb…cca6backed No | 52c | 38.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +167%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 46c | 29.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…f392backed Yes | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed Yes | 74c | 25.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 57c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…bc9ebacked No | 54c | 19.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Miho Takagi (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Antionette Rijpma-De Jong (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Brittany Bowe (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Francesca Lollobrigida (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Marijke Groenewoud (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.