TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,986

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes7c701.23$48 inLost-$47.696923.2%16 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes12c462.49$55 inLost-$54.752548%12 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+61.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes7c458.06$32 inLost-$32.283324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xece1…a49ebacked Yes10c287.81$28 inLost-$28.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d25…5f2ebacked Yes7c280.44$19 inLost-$19.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes15c200$29 inLost-$29.254228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes7c188.74$13 inLost-$13.313625%9 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes7c150$11 inLost-$11.13633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+89%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked No80c125.05$100 inWon+$25.051154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7436…0ac4backed Yes33c59.9$20 inLost-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+131.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9e…456bbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost-$15.6870%0 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.