Olympics · resolved market
Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400f6e786e9e274c9f47040c9eb4da5725fd0c1db5c86ae7e3c6532303b61068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,611$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.56 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 71c | 1,547$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,202$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.08 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 78c | 1,000$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 31c | 999.97$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed Yes | 3c | 900.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…2844backed Yes | 33c | 761.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 8c | 612.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 3c | 595.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…b092backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…3805backed No | 69c | 468.13$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed No | 72c | 319.53$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 31c | 284.27$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 40c | 189.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 186.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 30c | 159.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5792…0bb3backed Yes | 39c | 152.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea44…066fbacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Yes | 27c | 149.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 132.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 33c | 84.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 18c | 71.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 32c | 68.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…1a79backed Yes | 30c | 59.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…eb06backed Yes | 45c | 53.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +103%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6730…fb47backed Yes | 54c | 46.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd90…ab3ebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…3b14backed Yes | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…7167backed Yes | 29c | 34.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 34.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…8b50backed Yes | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…01d7backed Yes | 78c | 25.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe851…0ed4backed No | 61c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…d821backed No | 70c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…8b19backed No | 75c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Femke Kok (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Antionette Rijpma-De Jong (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Brittany Bowe (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Francesca Lollobrigida (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Marijke Groenewoud (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Miho Takagi (JPN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 1500m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.