F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b39217684ed6b2ee8c03ad4dc2ae2d20ba712da76c66cd55bc1bdc75f8b82ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 3c | 64,921$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 5c | 5,877$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.29 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,702$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9d…ab79backed Yes | 3c | 3,846$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 7c | 3,150$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.46 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed Yes | 3c | 3,145$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 4c | 2,594$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,220$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f1…91bdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,980$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,781$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Yes | 2c | 1,622$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2163…1f5ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,556$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,354$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0af…bfd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db8…0ed7backed Yes | 10c | 1,040$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…d124backed Yes | 5c | 1,040$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…9ed2backed Yes | 2c | 894.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 7c | 844.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed Yes | 15c | 810.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a1…6691backed Yes | 2c | 789.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 5c | 784.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 2c | 732.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…cf4ebacked Yes | 7c | 709.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 4c | 708.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 15c | 673.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -72%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…4fc5backed Yes | 14c | 560.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 557.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…db89backed Yes | 3c | 553.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 17c | 519.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…b038backed Yes | 13c | 504.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 100 | 20%20 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…0450backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked Yes | 15c | 498$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 10c | 497$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 4c | 492.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…edebbacked Yes | 15c | 449.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e7…6c34backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9da…3ef5backed Yes | 17c | 396.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +253.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 377$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 5c | 360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 7c | 330.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 326.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 16c | 300.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 285.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 13c | 283$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…8136backed Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…feb0backed Yes | 4c | 259.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…3a7ebacked Yes | 8c | 257.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…ba37backed Yes | 17c | 252.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 15c | 237.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…a944backed Yes | 17c | 229.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…c6c7backed Yes | 17c | 208.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2208…6238backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2601…61a9backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 7c | 193.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…f912backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…3271backed Yes | 16c | 123.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab23…f38dbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…d986backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…cd2ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4533…d1debacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f6…1601backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Yes | 16c | 65.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.