F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2553b01249e837a4d1ee7d4f9720c3ab2763a965ef3d664bdb63f4f8ea1a579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 3,909$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,342$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.33 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…b038backed Yes | 20c | 2,925$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.86 | 100 | 20%20 W · 80 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 11c | 2,784$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.17 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 17c | 1,210$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.4 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9d…ab79backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 8c | 1,050$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…4acebacked Yes | 9c | 755.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…fe53backed Yes | 8c | 725$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 19c | 700.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.74 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 20c | 686$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 21c | 656$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd437…ba37backed Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 17c | 572$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 13c | 550$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 13c | 509.37$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…2953backed Yes | 21c | 499.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 15c | 449.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 14c | 432$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 17c | 423.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked No | 78c | 373.53$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 77c | 318.24$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…d124backed Yes | 12c | 317.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 79c | 305.24$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e7…6c34backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 293.47$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 13c | 282.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 10c | 256.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 78c | 236.34$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 9c | 233.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 78c | 231.96$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67c…f936backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…c6c7backed Yes | 27c | 211.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f60…fd20backed Yes | 14c | 211.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…51edbacked Yes | 9c | 210.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c6…2941backed Yes | 16c | 192.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 20c | 180.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -72%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Yes | 23c | 178$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…edebbacked Yes | 20c | 151.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f6…1601backed Yes | 24c | 148.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…ef39backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…0427backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3309…be44backed Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…d2b5backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ca…8f8fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b82…9ed2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 12c | 121.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da6…9ac4backed Yes | 16c | 110.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e4…cd2ebacked Yes | 23c | 106.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f504backed Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 79c | 84.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 13c | 84.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 78.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 22c | 71.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 80c | 65.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…56f8backed Yes | 22c | 49.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +240.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 30.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked No | 79c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 17.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.