Olympics · resolved market
Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 5000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae9daaa0d8f881b5ed936f68d72cc7988990869300bcca16553b62a74a7903b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e73…b728backed Yes | 71c | 544.26$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 48c | 481.82$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.27 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…bf41backed Yes | 50c | 229.21$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…1f24backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 48c | 193.02$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked No | 45c | 159.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 54c | 148$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 54c | 142.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…05c1backed No | 8c | 135.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +255.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 50c | 134.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bf…dbe7backed No | 76c | 131.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 49c | 108.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 44c | 97.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 37c | 89.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 50c | 78.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…456bbacked Yes | 65c | 62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…85f5backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Yes | 58c | 46.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 46c | 35.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…a2b2backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94b…94a7backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…d2c9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ragne Wiklund (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 5000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Francesca Lollobrigida (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 5000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Isabelle Weidemann (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 5000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Marijke Groenewoud (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 5000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Martina Sablikova (CZE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 5000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Merel Conijn (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Women's 5000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.