Olympics · resolved market

Will Vladimir Semirunniy (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347fdba5650232d7af557b5d262f2d870bd64a731277e0c7384f64e8cf4e4a58

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $21,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,449 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x445e…9be0backed Yes	28c	5,706$1,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,608.22	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes	30c	3,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x895f…cfadbacked Yes	36c	2,961$1,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,063.52	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	23cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	8c	2,952$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.29	69	23.2%16 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No	66c	2,569$1,697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$872.77	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+4.4wins	+0.18per pick	30cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked No	77c	2,516$1,926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$589.88	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Yes	10c	1,024$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.38	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d9e…456bbacked Yes	23c	542.08$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-3.7wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Yes	30c	468.05$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed No	72c	450$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	39c	400$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes	8c	397.6$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.3	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes	21c	364$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.44	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-27%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2b81backed No	71c	311.63$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.84	12	91.7%11 W · 1 L	+3.2wins	+0.27per pick	65cpaid	+55.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked Yes	43c	287.96$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.46	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No	73c	285.11$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.82	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f12…1164backed No	58c	244.29$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	8c	221.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x305e…e8d9backed Yes	12c	212.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	54c	200$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	19c	160.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.11	61	23%14 W · 47 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf94b…94a7backed No	63c	158.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.82	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes	65c	143.1$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked No	73c	136.99$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.99	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	27c	127.84$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.29	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbddb…3269backed Yes	29c	120.34$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6325…cfaabacked No	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+2.7wins	+0.24per pick	57cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No	71c	89$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.07	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6bf…dbe7backed No	76c	26.32$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.32	4	75%3 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No	61c	18.52$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.19	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	67cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Vladimir Semirunniy (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event