Olympics · resolved market

Will Sander Eitrem (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd76c88f92a6137661b5bcdbb658fc96113be8cd1c7af98a315da8630caf7012b

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,437

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,228 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes	13c	2,723$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.16	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	9c	1,096$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.64	69	23.2%16 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	9c	875.36$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.32	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf88…fcb0backed Yes	13c	770$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.4	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	10c	754.9$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.49	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5044…f67fbacked Yes	12c	626.27$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.15	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes	11c	550$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x305e…e8d9backed Yes	10c	498.58$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…7e88backed Yes	23c	425.13$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.78	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…9e4fbacked Yes	12c	379.6$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.91	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	77c	325.13$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.78	53	66%35 W · 18 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+40%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	13c	290.57$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.71	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Yes	22c	261.53$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.54	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9775…8746backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	14c	193.06$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.62	61	23%14 W · 47 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes	15c	166.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	11c	162.52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e70…4af9backed Yes	28c	145.06$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa870…0970backed Yes	32c	110$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e0…a79fbacked Yes	20c	100.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+59.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes	15c	94.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa224…8c93backed Yes	22c	89.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf94b…94a7backed Yes	23c	85.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	80c	84.71$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes	20c	67.41$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No	75c	15.44$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.88	19	73.7%14 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	67cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Sander Eitrem (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event