Olympics · resolved market
Will Metodej Jilek (CZE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc44bfda88490e4e18a43bcf9cc18edb6cec48c33ca7e69adfce1efe836b505f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e9…32b8backed No | 62c | 5,409$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 40c | 5,057$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.03 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 35c | 2,325$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.58 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 42c | 1,099$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.12 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,070$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.19 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 79c | 572.47$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 566.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed Yes | 31c | 543.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.37 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 29c | 466.88$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Yes | 30c | 408.29$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.47 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 61c | 387.75$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…191bbacked Yes | 8c | 360.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…894cbacked Yes | 34c | 335.94$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 33c | 328.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed Yes | 31c | 311.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.62 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 31c | 302.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.69 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 58c | 282.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.81 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 30c | 271.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 266.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 33c | 256.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 218$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.46 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…ab57backed Yes | 74c | 210.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 32c | 200.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Yes | 77c | 198.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…2844backed Yes | 57c | 176.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…8a58backed No | 72c | 138.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…051fbacked Yes | 54c | 110.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 109$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 36c | 103.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.41 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 60c | 82.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 19c | 74.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 27c | 63.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…c2e2backed Yes | 33c | 60.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…b092backed Yes | 35c | 57.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…eb06backed Yes | 47c | 56.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +103%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb0…8880backed Yes | 44c | 54.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…cdc2backed Yes | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…cd82backed Yes | 75c | 44.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 50c | 44.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked No | 75c | 31.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…7847backed No | 41c | 26.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Metodej Jilek (CZE) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Davide Ghiotto (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Jorrit Bergsma (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Marcel Bosker (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Michele Malfatti (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sander Eitrem (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Stijn van de Bunt (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ted-Jan Bloemen (CAN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Timothy Loubineaud (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Vladimir Semirunniy (POL) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.