Olympics · resolved market

Will Davide Ghiotto (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10d78f06ce62719c60dc55f0eaa3574b98bf5c8d53e86b8ab695674c79b06142

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,469 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	42c	1,037$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.46	69	23.2%16 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes	45c	846.98$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.99	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	49c	795$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.63	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab85…81e6backed Yes	41c	734.85$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.24	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bc…8ce0backed No	51c	708.88$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.35	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	47c	692.88$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.69	46	41.3%19 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	16c	537.98$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.47	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed No	55c	500$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes	46c	462$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.74	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes	47c	220$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.4	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa7f…8a58backed No	73c	205.76$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.76	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	23c	200$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes	49c	199.78$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.66	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	45c	187.79$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.71	61	23%14 W · 47 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed No	52c	187$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.76	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c20…9e4fbacked Yes	15c	150$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes	42c	137.49$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.84	53	66%35 W · 18 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+40%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes	30c	130$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes	44c	126.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.38	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e70…4af9backed Yes	53c	122.85$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes	52c	115.02$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	52c	113$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.24	118	58.5%69 W · 49 L	+6.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	43c	109.79$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.92	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	42c	95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.15	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	58c	95$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.15	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Yes	49c	92$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.66	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa224…8c93backed Yes	56c	89.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	41c	87.46$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.05	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf94b…94a7backed Yes	49c	80.46$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.74	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb1…65a4backed Yes	52c	75.68$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03c4…6f4ebacked Yes	47c	63.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	54cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	36c	55.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ae3…4dd4backed Yes	47c	49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Yes	49c	42.83$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.82	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No	49c	41.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.41	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes	46c	32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked Yes	47c	31.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe44b…4359backed Yes	49c	29.82$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3023…b092backed Yes	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a30…8363backed No	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-63%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb25…1ce9backed No	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Davide Ghiotto (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 10000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event