TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$690,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$730,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $690,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a44…c20bbacked Yes4c65,095$2,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,894.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes0c31,651$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7510320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb725…ee14backed Yes1c23,358$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d0…97d3backed Yes27c18,400$4,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,91240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8af…04e7backed No70c16,314$11,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,850.871376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c60…2227backed Yes2c15,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes0c14,371$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed Yes2c13,254$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c11,300$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.31712.9%5 W · 166 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-37.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa53f…f455backed No69c11,066$7,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,406.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…4354backed Yes3c7,064$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e85…b85dbacked Yes31c6,499$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.75850%4 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+858.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes5c5,877$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.576314.3%9 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba3…e6acbacked Yes25c5,829$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.541618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes5c5,490$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2113422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes1c5,126$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b46…544fbacked Yes24c5,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e0…66b6backed No60c4,998$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,978.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ec…d33fbacked Yes9c4,864$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c8…f51abacked Yes40c4,793$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,923.47862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98b7…4947backed Yes2c4,580$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.531216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb674…0184backed Yes3c3,855$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca53…2dffbacked Yes34c3,533$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,525$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.047663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c3,512$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd853…d427backed Yes6c3,486$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfce…b7a5backed Yes5c3,303$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes35c3,090$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.886940.6%28 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b41…82b7backed Yes14c3,079$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c3,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366217.7%11 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75013023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes2c2,974$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.472123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick33cpaid+13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd11a…0100backed Yes2c2,917$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.01742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes0c2,869$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.692133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbace…3429backed No71c2,850$2,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.192157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd54e…043cbacked Yes10c2,377$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…14f3backed Yes33c2,277$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid+23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…fe86backed No58c2,273$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.291915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes18c2,269$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.472832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f4…326ebacked Yes1c2,098$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aef…533bbacked Yes41c2,000$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb18c…b41ebacked Yes17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x582f…e168backed Yes4c1,723$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801d…6a23backed Yes30c1,661$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x610c…3a8ebacked Yes32c1,640$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x031b…babcbacked Yes28c1,633$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c6…1661backed Yes5c1,600$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64bc…a31ebacked Yes21c1,574$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93a…8b69backed Yes34c1,488$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes52c1,363$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7102123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-66.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xca14…1273backed No77c1,306$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Yes53c1,288$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.5210948.6%53 W · 56 L+11.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+54%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0dff…a788backed Yes2c1,232$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df0…9edabacked No74c1,216$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes40c1,200$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a0…3ddfbacked Yes4c1,111$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked No69c1,043$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.071861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3c…922dbacked Yes5c1,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9e…75b6backed Yes24c1,000$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes2c999.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacc3…6682backed Yes21c966.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+61.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbce4…5a87backed Yes12c899.98$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes12c876.69$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.745145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x728d…f7e6backed Yes44c868.78$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.581338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe005…14fdbacked Yes26c799.99$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081650%8 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52bf…97a2backed No78c763$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-53.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6949…4f8fbacked Yes3c708.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked No67c700$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2312548%12 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No60c700$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2831118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked No74c678.48$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes6c635.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+72.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74c…50b4backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c575.53$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6235712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34cb…7588backed No73c573.94$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.311435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2152…c3f9backed Yes17c572.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked No53c566.84$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No63c553.9$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.9423841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed No56c549.97$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.992055%11 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b1…c764backed Yes8c534.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.691723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd118…e9c9backed Yes22c518.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No75c509.98$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.1510763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0503…db3dbacked Yes23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1154219%8 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed No72c500$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1421225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a14…045cbacked Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152850%14 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07fd…48fbbacked Yes22c499.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101020%2 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-69%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Yes20c492.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…366dbacked No74c490.12$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf989…0b0abacked Yes29c453.15$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2422…7083backed Yes16c432.4$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423b…86c1backed Yes38c429.17$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes24c425.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009645.8%44 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c420.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3233329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63d6…bb94backed No48c412.46$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.36333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes29c402.75$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.142711.1%3 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2140…3f88backed Yes29c399.97$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10f4…a5debacked Yes46c378.76$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-65.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No69c372.28$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.13825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…d95cbacked No71c371.03$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.662070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes3c343.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ee…7805backed Yes44c337.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+70.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.