TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,225
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,034

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,225 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes45c3,000$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.382962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked No53c2,908$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked Yes3c2,062$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes47c1,283$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e2…b0f3backed No68c1,028$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes13c744.41$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No40c717.85$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.423444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No46c700$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9e…be96backed No60c689.54$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.882661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4499…d102backed No56c532.36$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.361225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-57.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed No45c499.55$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa224…3769backed Yes29c468.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.011040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes43c467.87$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.477733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23e8…981abacked Yes23c430.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes22c419.02$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.576050%30 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0238…c051backed Yes32c414.24$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.06560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes8c410.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8310426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes43c399.98$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.9911530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed Yes62c375$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.251241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid+30.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed No56c369.18$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.961741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes44c367.15$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.083815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed No42c360.53$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.531752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No55c337.93$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.073444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…e194backed No60c322.66$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes48c303.89$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1603…301cbacked Yes40c300.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.15850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No65c290.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked No72c281.98$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.08475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes36c278$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.083237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No59c275.66$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.023151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…03f3backed Yes25c257.32$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5034…3225backed No80c256.24$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes65c249.98$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.9910651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed Yes41c244.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes48c222.22$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ee…a1debacked Yes41c220$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes58c219.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.463033.3%10 W · 20 L-6.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No40c201.73$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.3310241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7415029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb35a…272dbacked Yes41c188.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2e…45fbbacked No40c185.24$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+100.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No35c177.15$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.985327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91ac…215dbacked No39c174.37$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd68…8b82backed No61c164.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3be9…e080backed Yes63c159.31$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db1…7acebacked Yes64c157.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes41c152.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.253951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes62c149.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes39c148$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.192343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd71…33e2backed Yes73c137.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3946…7ababacked Yes35c129.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes10c126.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.145123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes38c124.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.858725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa300…1ac9backed Yes41c122$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0107…6a95backed No52c115.8$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a7…1aeabacked Yes43c101.88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c4b…d761backed Yes18c100.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeabe…43dcbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76be…6718backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-68.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc975…2c68backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+215.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+130.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadcb…4b08backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…c623backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb2…79e2backed No57c99.96$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No33c94.23$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.547241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e8…b58ebacked No56c94.2$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x016c…ae19backed Yes64c93.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.53727%10 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.52433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked No34c88.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…c48dbacked Yes64c86.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No60c83.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf356…3effbacked Yes61c82.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes37c81.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b91…eec9backed Yes47c80.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9379…2e25backed No62c80.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No40c79.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a27…45babacked No45c71.47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e1…b3c6backed No35c71.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.211764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes55c67.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.242850%14 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes43c67.83$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.982245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes38c65.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.772751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc3…5a00backed No62c65.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.77683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+99.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5dc2…4837backed Yes63c63.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa582…8ec0backed Yes69c57.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c7e…638dbacked Yes61c56.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9291…1629backed Yes62c54.85$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c65…6b11backed Yes48c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb69…2a62backed Yes47c53.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73fb…9754backed Yes38c53.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked No69c50.43$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37f4…8697backed No45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5036…416bbacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+24.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0520…89c2backed Yes40c49.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.