Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a9aafe85304e51c1d46687661328b2ae61b11a5860ed978af8125ffbf15c51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 1c | 9,381$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…05efbacked Yes | 78c | 1,364$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 14c | 745.26$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 30c | 563.84$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 42c | 427.22$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 72c | 279.92$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 19c | 256.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 22c | 236.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 71c | 178.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 20c | 158.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 28c | 157.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 56c | 155$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 26c | 150.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 21c | 135$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 42c | 122.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes | 73c | 117.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5488…4a9ebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 23c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked No | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed No | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 75c | 84.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 32c | 82.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 24c | 75.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 72c | 75.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 30c | 73.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 23c | 67.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 77c | 64.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes | 71c | 63.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 25c | 50.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked Yes | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed No | 26c | 49.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bea…6cc3backed No | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…7c5cbacked Yes | 75c | 40.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e76…21bcbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…b799backed Yes | 74c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…d78abacked Yes | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…210ebacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…2a3ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…caebbacked Yes | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc0…b5f7backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 77c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb983…74fabacked Yes | 74c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…8809backed Yes | 76c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.