TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0562…9d66backed Yes50c4,707$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.723030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No62c860.83$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.55036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa224…3769backed Yes40c764.63$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.991040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No52c721.03$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.573622.2%8 W · 28 L-8.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-63.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes59c601.2$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+66.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes28c558.32$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.693815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No42c555$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.693444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3007949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes50c369.05$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.17733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71f…43b4backed No40c362.97$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No38c334$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.082962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked No42c302.75$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+90.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2957…5e66backed No52c272.54$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No46c265$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd957…a584backed No40c250.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+104.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2416…c59abacked No40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Yes49c244.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.253033.3%10 W · 20 L-6.8wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes54c218.67$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.332343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64f6…e40cbacked No46c218$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+24.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbcad…0047backed No40c215$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+51.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked No45c199.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes51c191.57$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No54c186.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.79560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe931…138bbacked No40c174.97$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes47c172.66$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.393339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes51c168.97$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.536050%30 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes55c149.95$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4710651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x306c…3dbabacked No48c146.72$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.724042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0194…eb56backed No40c140.15$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa582…8ec0backed No53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No39c108.75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.688725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed No53c103.24$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.522227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No43c100.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.673253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5611741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18e3…7065backed No40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes61c99.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No52c98.08$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.081643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1575…f704backed No49c95.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…7c21backed No43c91.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.32475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked No44c84.12$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.141154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd299…9c20backed Yes55c72.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No44c70.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No45c66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+44.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes55c66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.34555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e16…52d2backed No40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked No39c51.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.41850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0549…496fbacked No40c50.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e4…f323backed No39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d6d…2bfabacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.52040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2762…d65abacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0006…5906backed No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe79c…0b2abacked No40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6797…42fbbacked No42c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes51c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed No41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.491741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23e9…024dbacked No52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa19…fb67backed Yes54c48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0a…c0debacked No40c42.4$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe82a…c8a6backed Yes59c41.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52c2…65a0backed No50c40.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.121020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No44c38$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.467350.7%37 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf00…76f2backed No45c37.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.911190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick57cpaid+56.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7748…594abacked No54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdea4…15dbbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No40c32.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.83718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No39c32.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.85650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689d…f3c1backed No45c30.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed No39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ccb…e4eabacked Yes65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b91…eec9backed No40c27.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed No40c25.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf347…034bbacked No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+140.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa722…5794backed No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a5…7b3abacked No40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe106…92c6backed No47c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.66955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+62.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad5…118abacked No50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72e…b33dbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x500f…d27fbacked Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9139…05a1backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5e5…2670backed Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…c623backed Yes67c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.061050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.