Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf87a8d40b0af0145105a8dc9ebafc3f5d6939a8e0ebd0d045bdabbd012cb5f16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 3c | 2,070$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 28c | 1,119$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.59 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…209abacked Yes | 73c | 712.08$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 589.28$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 73c | 570$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 27c | 512.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 73c | 502.09$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.82 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 54c | 388.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 27c | 329.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 30c | 269.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 74c | 250.79$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 27c | 244.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 75c | 226.45$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 72c | 181.06$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 72c | 159.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 26c | 151$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 73c | 137.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906e…a4e0backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…dfdebacked No | 31c | 112.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 26c | 110.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 28c | 110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 26c | 90.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a2…973cbacked Yes | 69c | 89.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 24c | 86.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Yes | 76c | 79.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 30c | 67.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…fb79backed Yes | 70c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 52c | 56.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 27c | 50.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 43c | 48.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 68c | 41.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cd…cc33backed Yes | 75c | 40.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…367fbacked No | 34c | 36.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…d27fbacked Yes | 71c | 36.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 65c | 28.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 51c | 27.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 51c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…c675backed Yes | 76c | 23.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…d059backed Yes | 75c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…4d77backed Yes | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb983…74fabacked Yes | 72c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc9…1ec7backed Yes | 73c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…96eabacked Yes | 73c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.