Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b5931301606ae0acf47cf71508362dd6b0f85c43d71563fd2087acbe9594e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 54c | 208.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccb…b1fdbacked Yes | 55c | 188.94$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…8624backed Yes | 54c | 184.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…2b92backed No | 57c | 177.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked No | 59c | 120.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 51c | 109.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 45c | 108.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 43c | 99.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 54c | 92.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Yes | 49c | 79.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 63c | 71.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 44cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 40c | 64.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 42c | 57.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 37c | 54.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked No | 59c | 50.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…c8a6backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 45.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…2bedbacked Yes | 47c | 42.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x894a…3d3cbacked Yes | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 19cpaid | +386.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 57c | 41.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e3…7065backed Yes | 52c | 38.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked No | 50c | 38.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510c…4d9ebacked Yes | 53c | 36.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 59c | 34.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa376…74d7backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 48c | 28.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 50c | 26.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cd…cc33backed No | 59c | 25.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 51c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…26debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.