Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3e837196324f8b5855e0b797f1cc0ae3801fb8de36198b2cf4255cb8baabee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 55c | 1,480$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 46c | 960.62$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 47c | 700.56$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 40c | 484.43$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.08 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 47c | 473.77$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.03 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 58c | 449.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 61c | 310.28$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 48c | 288$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 62c | 265.72$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…ed44backed No | 41c | 220$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 38c | 184.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 37c | 163.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…a584backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 51c | 145.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 57c | 141.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 63c | 137.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 39c | 135.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 34c | 135.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 68c | 129.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2676…7b08backed No | 47c | 128.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked No | 42c | 100.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…4afbbacked No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 84.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…e881backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked No | 30c | 69.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 53c | 68.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e9…8856backed Yes | 75c | 68.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 25c | 68.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 43c | 63.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…5df4backed Yes | 56c | 53.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 59c | 49.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…4091backed No | 49c | 44.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked No | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…ac5abacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd299…9c20backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…9c60backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 36c | 39.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…c8e9backed Yes | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 55c | 23.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f9…629abacked Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 64c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 44cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…c675backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.