Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc395b5526c4833d80a3183130fff87c43a4f8b3cf6432f184ead5073de054fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 40c | 498$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 62c | 382.23$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 60c | 266$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 33c | 253.05$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 37c | 249.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes | 42c | 240.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed No | 58c | 240.11$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 42c | 225.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…f3c1backed No | 49c | 204.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 28c | 191.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 51c | 176.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 70c | 163.85$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…0094backed No | 64c | 155.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 41c | 147.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2e…45fbbacked No | 65c | 139.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 67c | 130.43$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 36c | 123.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 62c | 119.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 39c | 110.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…fa42backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc975…2c68backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 34c | 75.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 71.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…c3dcbacked No | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 61c | 55.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…6197backed Yes | 42c | 52.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes | 43c | 52.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 38c | 33.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…dd30backed No | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…08aabacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 64c | 27.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.