Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fcb657ab4ed150043ff6b85a988a7679b8e55ca2aebcfa548d1553d47042260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 59c | 1,500$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.99 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 51c | 1,177$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 39c | 999$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.61 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 40c | 778.55$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 71c | 699.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 35c | 684.32$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.27 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 30c | 613.28$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.69 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 49c | 584.08$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.02 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked Yes | 47c | 550.34$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9b…2f15backed No | 68c | 423.15$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes | 39c | 375.7$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 40c | 334.88$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 32c | 321.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.41 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed No | 62c | 320.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca4…5940backed No | 64c | 317.6$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 62c | 301.98$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab3…dd6dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…981abacked No | 39c | 247$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 44c | 243.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 61c | 201.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 45c | 201$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xffbc…b889backed No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed No | 61c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…33e2backed No | 61c | 187.36$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…272dbacked Yes | 41c | 177.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 51c | 175.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…f3c1backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 41c | 160.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed No | 64c | 155.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 65c | 153.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked No | 68c | 146.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 64c | 145$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed No | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed Yes | 60c | 138.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…9c60backed Yes | 31c | 129.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 37c | 125.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 76c | 118.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2e…45fbbacked Yes | 51c | 116.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 37c | 108.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 48c | 100.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…0b2abacked No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 20c | 96.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd299…9c20backed No | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…5f25backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 45c | 89.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes | 54c | 85.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…850fbacked Yes | 40c | 81.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7255…67e0backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e8…b58ebacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 62c | 79.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 66c | 77.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa376…74d7backed No | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 38c | 69.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 38c | 69.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 69.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes | 43c | 69.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…d059backed Yes | 39c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3be9…e080backed No | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 60c | 61.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7155backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked Yes | 45c | 55.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 61c | 53.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…4656backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 36c | 49.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Yes | 40c | 44.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 66c | 39.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…ad90backed No | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…6dd3backed Yes | 64c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…4201backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…b407backed No | 51c | 27.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…2637backed Yes | 40c | 25.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…e741backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cd…cc33backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cf…0c26backed Yes | 48c | 23.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…a3c3backed Yes | 44c | 22.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 52c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…3246backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.