Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2592e3e1a54fc055973cb75ed325f88a705d3c7abf954b792ab1bfe26541c8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 1,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +190.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 25c | 496.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.71 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 24c | 400.04$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.55 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…f3c1backed No | 76c | 367.93$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 17c | 344.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked No | 77c | 326.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 26c | 305.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.43 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 33c | 302.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 75c | 250$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Yes | 27c | 181.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +263.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 29c | 167$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 27c | 164.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed No | 73c | 137.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 73c | 129.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…c3dcbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 66c | 92.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…5df4backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 83.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed No | 77c | 78.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 71c | 77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…2bedbacked Yes | 27c | 72.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 24c | 65.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cf…0569backed No | 77c | 52.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Yes | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…301cbacked Yes | 28c | 44.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 43.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ee…96a0backed Yes | 32c | 43.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd76f…d897backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…7348backed No | 71c | 34.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…ba6ebacked No | 73c | 33.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 38c | 29.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 44cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed No | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…4201backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…3246backed No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0a…c0debacked No | 74c | 21.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked No | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…f704backed No | 71c | 20.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…3ed0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.