TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,765
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,765 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f9e…be96backed No67c6,984$4,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,700.982661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1710…3344backed Yes65c2,269$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes25c2,150$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.593030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b3…88edbacked No15c2,132$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes31c1,554$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.473724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+90.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164b…fe83backed No1c1,449$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes29c1,275$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.361861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+49.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes66c1,239$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.95520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked No2c1,030$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa224…3769backed Yes30c965.9$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.131040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes19c709.49$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.662962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No7c652.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.547350.7%37 W · 36 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes32c605.13$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.811250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes51c585.5$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3111530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…6a01backed Yes71c553.77$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No48c522.93$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.971752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a47…88f2backed No65c507.58$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c4…1f56backed No80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.920%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes49c441.41$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.82152.4%11 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked Yes23c435.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.83560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+61.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes20c424.3$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.397733.8%26 W · 51 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe367…abd9backed No79c418.52$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.52728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-58.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x529b…fc0dbacked No75c333.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23e8…981abacked No34c294.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No12c286.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.342441.7%10 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.28per pick14cpaid+203.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes24c278.06$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.453339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64f6…e40cbacked No77c260$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+24.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed No35c250$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes26c226.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.88725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes27c222.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.152114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No75c200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.22060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc3…5a00backed Yes26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+99.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c186.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.165327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked No77c184.93$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes47c165.13$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.332751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked No72c138.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed No76c123.83$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.451936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x931b…07c5backed No67c111$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe79c…0b2abacked No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No74c99.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.494555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked No74c96$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes30c95.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.96757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No12c90$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66c…edd0backed Yes35c85.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Yes30c84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+90.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes52c81.2$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.372245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b2…98bebacked Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ce…7fd1backed Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee1…8edcbacked Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3931…57cebacked Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8682…9c60backed Yes29c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+120.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53f0…c45ebacked Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…1832backed Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1bf…dbbcbacked Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes27c76.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.73951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked No72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x908b…1f85backed No46c64.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e8…b58ebacked No80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed Yes64c60.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.971963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…261cbacked Yes35c57.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18e3…7065backed No72c54.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4c…1254backed Yes26c53.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f38…36c1backed No56c51.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf89d…63a2backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d13…c3dcbacked No79c40.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked No52c39.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.796622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes40c31.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.92055%11 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+54.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34e8…1e4cbacked No72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ce…a3efbacked No76c27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5250%0 W · 5 L-3.0wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed No78c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.053718.9%7 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc975…2c68backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+215.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked No71c19.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4481…6ec6backed Yes57c19.13$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28d9…17bbbacked No78c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.822532%8 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x151a…714ebacked No75c18.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.65650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3599…f84dbacked No80c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.